Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
